- $20 per Gallon
- Beginnings and Endings
- Book Update
- Carbon Nanotube Structural Composites
- Alt Fuels
- GM's Driverless Car Announcement
- Thermelectric and Thermionic Devices
- Green Auto Racing
- Of Mileage and Markets - the Politics of Fuel Efficiency
- Thought Provoking Green Vehicles
- Renewable Energy and Energy Storage
- Renewables and Finance
- Structural Nanotubes Now?
- Two Timely Books
- Advanced Biofuels USA
- Alternative Fuels Redux
- Altfuels Industry Directory
- Alt Fuels Manifesto
- Clean Energy Journal Biofuels Forum
- Fossil Fuels
Tech & Scientific Developments
- Green Infrastructure & Environmental Initiatives
- UOP's New Biofuel Tech (Strangled In The Cradle II)
- Alternative Fuel Paradigms
- Alternative Fuel Paradigms, Part II
- STRANGLED IN THE CRADLE?
- Coal and Uranium Reserves Running Out?
- Nanotechnology and Alternative Fuels
- Electricity vs. Alt Fuels
- Energy Transitions and Industrial Policy
- Industrial Policty II
- In Situ Coal Gasification
Commentary & Analysis
- Coal-to-Liquids Controversy
- STATE OF THE INDUSTRY - PART II
- The Heartland Institute's Environmental Journal
- The War of the Alcohols
- Transportation Revolutions Transposed
- Twin Peak - Coal & Uranium
- World Agricultural Forum's Biofuels Initiatve
- Alt Fuel Options
- The Next Bubble
- Finance & Markets
- Legislative & Regulatory
- Tech & Scientific Developments
- The Structure of Transportation Revolutions
- Bio Fuels
- Fossil Fuels
- Heat Engines
- Toward the Renewable Sources Power Grid Part I
- Alternative Fuels - Competitive Landscape
- The Great Illusion or Why the Hydrogen Highway Never Got Built
- The Great Illusion, Part II
- Lightweighting -Saving Fuel by Saving Weight
- Lightweighting - Part III
- Maritime Transport in an Energy Constrained Future
- Maritime Transport and Energy - Part II
- The Future of Aviation
Week of August 31
Submitted by Dan Sweeney on Tue, 2008-09-09 14:48.
We have noted a rather sharp diminution in the number of announcements we have been receiving regarding alternative fuels, indicative, perhaps, of a waning interest on the part of the public and of investors in this area. We have noted no new admissions to Vinod Khosla's stable, and we have seen a decline in both the number of new plant openings, and in the number of new processing technologies being showcased. What can this mean?
I see several factors figuring in the seeming eclipse of our segment of the alternative energy business.
The recent apparently serious advocacy of pure electric and hybrid electric cars on the part of some auto maker and suppliers as well as the powerful semiconductor industry has definitely shifted attention away from the internal combustion engine as the sole power source for transportation and thus away from new fuel sources for IC engines. We have been covering this area extensively of late, and we think that the reintroduction of the electric car, after a century of hibernation, is going to proceed in earnest. Whether it will be successful is another matter, but it cannot be ignored.
Furthermore, the travails of the corn based ethanol industry have negatively impacted the larger alternative fuels industry—no doubt about it—and especially the biofuels segment. What is worse, the notion that biofuels manufacturers are somehow taking food out of the mouths of the poor has begun to take root among political progressives, precisely the group whose support is vital for the growth of the industry.
Purveyors of unconventional fossil fuels, of course, never enjoyed much support from the political left in the first place, and only lukewarm support from any portion of the political spectrum. More importantly, they couldn't attract investment capital in the quantities necessary to build processing plants on a scale that would be cost competitive with conventional petroleum refining. So they're not doing very well either, though we are witnessing the first tentative efforts to establish a real coal-to-liquids industry.
Finally, T. Boone Pickens vociferous advocacy of natural gas as a motor fuel has had an impact, and, moreover, it has come at a time when many unconventional natural gas resources have rather suddenly come into play.
The increasing likelihood of a Palin Presidency also clouds the prospect not only of alternative fuels but of alternative energy in general. We would expect that this individual would continue the policies of the younger Bush, and might perhaps pursue them with even greater ardor. On the other hand, we do not believe Palin or McCain could possibly reverse the downward trend in domestic oil production or the long term trend of ascending oil prices, or, indeed, the relentless shrinkage of the Polar ice caps. So perhaps they will not prove as successful ultimately as George W. Bush has been in selling such policies to the public.
Bosch Makes a Bet
Bosch Corporation, a leading supplier of components to the automotive industry, issued a statement last week to the effect that hybrids and pure electrical vehicles would comprise 3% of global automobile sales by 2015. Bosch is further predicting that electric traction will begin to predominate late in the third decade of this century.
Bosch is already heavily involved in the manufacture of high performance electric motors and controllers, current converters, voltage regulars, and a whole range of components utilized in hybrid and electric vehicles. They are well positioned to take advantage of pervasive electrification in personal transport.
They are likely to profit enormously from such an eventuality, so their views in this manner can certainly be considered biased. But they are not alone.
Both Nissan and BMS spokesperson recently expressed belief in a future dominated by electric vehicles, as have numerous parties within the semiconductor industry. MIT's recent study on the future of the automobile expressed doubt as to the likelihood of a transition to electric power, however.
We are contemplating the composition of a book length report on the matter with projections regarding semiconductor and electrical component sales to automobile manufacturers within the years to come, so we view such statements with interest. Is this in fact the way that industry is tending?
As we have indicated elsewhere, we think an electrified future in motorized transportation is possible though not certain. It is quite unlikely in general aviation and shipping and boating with current technology and somewhat unlikely in heavy rail transport. There are so many intangibles and contingencies in this area, that definitive statements are unwise, but we can suggest, as in the preceding segment, that electricity is now definitely in contention.